A few years ago, the hype around self-driving cars was at an all-time high. Major tech companies and automakers were making bold predictions about fully autonomous vehicles being just around the corner.
We were told that by the early 2020s, our roads would be filled with driverless cars, revolutionising transportation and ushering in a new era of mobility. However, as we approach the mid-2020s, the much-anticipated self-driving car revolution seems to have stalled.
So, what happened to the promised driverless future, and where are we really at with this technology?
The Hype and Overpromising
In the mid-2010s, the idea of self-driving cars captured the public's imagination. Companies like Google (now with a project called Waymo), Uber, Tesla, and traditional automakers poured billions of dollars into developing autonomous driving systems.
They made ambitious claims about the imminent arrival of fully driverless vehicles, promising a future where we could simply summon a car with a tap on our smartphones, and it would whisk us away to our destination without any human intervention.
However, as the years passed, it became increasingly clear that the challenges of achieving full autonomy were far more complex than initially anticipated. The technology proved to be more difficult to perfect than many had expected, and the timelines for deployment kept getting pushed back.
The Challenges of Fully Autonomous Driving
One of the biggest hurdles in the development of self-driving cars is the sheer complexity of the driving task. Navigating through dynamic environments, interpreting unpredictable situations, and making split-second decisions requires a level of artificial intelligence and perception that is incredibly difficult to replicate.
While self-driving cars have made significant strides in controlled environments, such as highways and well-mapped urban areas, they still struggle with more complex scenarios. Construction zones, inclement weather, unexpected obstacles, and the nuances of human behaviour on the road can all pose challenges for autonomous systems.
Another major challenge is ensuring the utmost safety and reliability of these systems. A single failure or error in a self-driving car could have catastrophic consequences, making the bar for safety much higher than for human drivers. Achieving the level of redundancy and fail-safe mechanisms required for fully autonomous operation has proven to be a daunting task.
Regulatory and Liability Hurdles
Beyond the technological challenges, the deployment of self-driving cars has also faced significant regulatory and liability hurdles. Governments around the world have been grappling with the question of how to regulate this emerging technology and determine who is responsible in the event of an accident involving an autonomous vehicle.
In the United States, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has been working on developing a regulatory framework for self-driving cars, but progress has been slow. Different states have taken varying approaches, creating a patchwork of regulations that can be difficult for automakers to navigate.
The issue of liability is also a thorny one. If a self-driving car is involved in an accident, who is responsible – the manufacturer, the software developer, the owner, or the occupant? This question has significant implications for insurance and legal frameworks, and it has yet to be fully resolved.
Australia's Progress on Self-Driving Car Legislation
In Australia, the federal government and state/territory governments have been working together to develop a national framework for regulating autonomous vehicles. The proposed Automated Vehicle Safety Law (AVSL) is expected to commence in 2026-2027, placing responsibility for the safety of an automated driving system on a designated corporation known as the Automated Driving System Entity (ADSE).
However, progress has been slower than initially anticipated. In 2024, the National Transport Commission (NTC) sought public feedback on the proposed regulatory framework, highlighting the complexities involved in ensuring the safe operation of autonomous vehicles on Australian roads.
Recent Incidents and Setbacks
While the development of self-driving cars continues, recent incidents and setbacks have further dampened the initial enthusiasm surrounding the technology.
In 2024, Waymo, one of the leaders in the field, faced scrutiny after reports emerged of its autonomous vehicles struggling in construction zones and engaging in erratic behaviour, such as hard braking or becoming immobilised on the road. The San Francisco County Transportation Authority raised concerns about Waymo's vehicles obstructing traffic and emergency response scenes.
You can see an example of this erratic behaviour in the video below, where one Waymo proceeds to cut off the Waymo next to it in an inconvenient and potentially dangerous way:
Another high-profile setback occurred when Ford and Volkswagen announced the closure of their joint autonomous driving venture, Argo AI, in 2022. The two automakers decided to shift their focus from Level 4 automation to more advanced driver-assistance systems (Levels 2 and 3), citing the challenges and costs associated with developing fully autonomous vehicles.
Apple's much-rumoured "Apple Car" project, which was expected to produce a self-driving electric vehicle, has also faced numerous delays and setbacks. The project – named Project Titan – has been abandoned after spending $10 billion. Reports suggest that many of its employees predicted its downfall and considered the failure inevitable.
The Road Ahead
While the hype around self-driving cars may have subsided, the development of autonomous driving technology continues, albeit at a more measured pace. Companies are now recognizing that the path to full autonomy is an evolutionary process rather than a revolutionary one.
In the near term, we are likely to see more advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and partially autonomous features being introduced in consumer vehicles. These systems can assist drivers in certain situations but still require human oversight and intervention.
The deployment of fully autonomous vehicles is expected to occur gradually, starting with controlled environments such as dedicated lanes, highways, or specific geographic areas. Ride-hailing services and commercial trucking are seen as potential early adopters of self-driving technology, as they can operate within defined parameters and routes.
However, the widespread adoption of fully autonomous vehicles for personal use in complex urban environments is still likely years – if not decades – away. Significant technological breakthroughs, regulatory changes, and public acceptance will be required before we can truly realise the vision of a driverless future.
In the meantime, the industry's focus has shifted towards more realistic and incremental goals, with a greater emphasis on safety, reliability, and building public trust. While the self-driving car revolution may not have unfolded as quickly as promised, the pursuit of this technology continues, driven by the potential benefits it could bring to transportation, accessibility, and road safety.
